Outlooks

Economists stick to negative growth forecast

11.07.2012 u 15:30

Bionic
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Economists of six major banks in Croatia have slightly changed their projections for the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2012 from their previous forecasts of 1.3 percent contraction to 1.5 percent contraction, according to figures from the latest edition of the Croatian Banking Association's publication "Izgledi" (Outlooks).

The publication gives results of biannual polls, conducted among the six banks' economists, about economic outlooks.

The average expected rate of the GDP change is now 0.2 points lower than in January and is a negative 1.5 percent, reads the publication, adding that the range of the projections of the economists polled narrowed to between a negative 1 percent to a negative 2.1 percent.

Accordingly, the forecasts of unemployment rates have also changed from the lower threshold of 13.1 percent to 13.9 percent , with the upper threshold remaining at 16.4 percent.

The average expected rate of unemployment is 14.6 percent.

The economists polled also expect the contraction of all important components of GDP, with a negative 3.1 percent in investment, and a negative 1 percent in personal consumption.

They forecast the contraction of exports by 1.3 percent.

The only improvement is seen in the forecast of the budget deficit, with the economists projecting the budget gap at 4.7 percent of GDP by the end of this year.