After 15 years on the run, during which time he has made public appearances enjoying protection from the state and army, Bosnian Serb army general Ratko Mladic is most probably hiding in nondescript apartments in New Belgrade, a sprawling extension of Belgrade, with the help of a handful of his most loyal supporters, reads an article in The New York Times of Friday.
Quoting investigators and some of Mladic's former associates, the paper says that the diminished circumstances of the former Bosnian Serb army general, who once was protected by scores of allies and Serbian government officials, make him ripe for capture.
But a softening by several European countries on whether his arrest should be a prerequisite for Serbia's admission to the European Union is raising questions about whether he will ever face justice, reads the article.
The article examines the EU's priorities in the light of Serbia's request for EU membership and the request to arrest Mladic, and speaks warily of Belgrade's true readiness to make "the politically difficult arrest" of a man blamed for the worst ethnically motivated mass murder in Europe since World War II.
That involved the massacre of about 8,000 Muslim men and boys from the Bosnian town of Srebrenica and the three-month siege of the capital of Sarajevo, during which 10,000 people were killed, including 3,500 children.
In the name of unity and stability, should Europe put a premium on rehabilitating a battered country that became a pariah state in the Balkan wars of the 1990s or in the name of its human rights tradition, should it first require a friendly Serbian government to make the arrest, the authors of the article wonder.
One of the most effective points of pressure is withholding consideration of EU membership until Serbia produces Mladic, but there are strong indications that when European foreign ministers meet in Luxembourg next Monday, the balance would tip away from requiring an immediate arrest and that an EU admission process that would take several years could start.
"The arrest should be a number one priority," Serge Brammertz, the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia in The Hague, said in an interview.
Brammertz's position is supported at present only by the Netherlands, which considers Mladic's arrest a prerequisite for the continuation of talks with Serbia.
After 15 years of hiding, the 68-year-old Mladic has gotten older, sicker and more isolated, probably moving from one nondescript apartment to another in New Belgrade, the paper says, quoting Serbian investigators as saying that Mladic's network of helpers is now probably reduced to one, possibly two most loyal supporters who are linked with the former Yugoslav People's Army and are helping Mladic the same way Bosnian Serb political leader Radovan Karadzic was helped, with 200 euros per month for food expenses, staying in 12 apartments in New Belgrade.
Serbian President Boris Tadic said in a written response to inquiries from The New York Times that the Serbian government "is doing everything in its power to find and arrest Mladic".
Given history, many analysts in Serbia and beyond remain skeptical.
Western officials detected a long-running pattern: Whenever pressure increased, the Serbs made limited concessions. When pressure receded, efforts evaporated. The authorities staged raids targeting Mladic and Karadzic through the first half of 2008, for example. But in interviews, Serbian investigators and protectors of the two men said members of Serbian state intelligence services were simultaneously watching Mladic and Karadzic in their true hiding place, far from the drama.
"This game has been going on now for five to six years," a Western diplomat said. "They are either waiting for him to die — a stroke or kidney problems — or hoping to get into the European Union without doing anything."
